How Forecast Seasonality Work?

Question & Answer
1

How does the seasonality affect the forecasting? I adjust the value but it’s not very apparent. Does anyone have an idea?

Thanks,
Alan

2

You can find a short description here:

“The number of seasons included in the calendar year. The default setting, automatic detects this for you. Ranges from 1 to 180”.
In other words, if you notice that there is a pattern in your data , e.g. weekly, and you have your data at daily granularity, seasonality will be equal to 7. If your data has a quarterly pattern, and your data granularity is set to monthly then set it to 3.

1 Like
3

Thanks for your response JoseB-aws. So if I have 2 years of data displaying monthly, I would still set the seasonality to 4 so it detects the quarterly pattern for both years? Is that how it works?

Thanks,
Alan

4

Yes… but one correction, Quarterly pattern, then the seasonality will be 3. Being 3 the number of months x 4 (number of quarters in a year) = 12.

5

Thanks JoseB for your update